Friday, June 25, 2010

Building a championship team - with or without LeBron

The NBA, the commissioner, coaches, players, for the most part, have given in to the hype of free agency 2010. Max contracts, LeBron James, or bust. The hopes of New York, Cleveland, Miami, Chicago and any other team willing and able to spend money depend on signing LeBron. It seems stupid to have to state this fact, but championship teams in this day and age, cannot rely solely on one player.

Take for starters LeBron's inability to win in Cleveland - with a bad team around him OR a good team around him. But instead of turning this into a LeBron bashing session, there is a logical way to approach 2010 free agency without getting lost in the hype.

Kobe needed Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Ron Artest, and Trevor Ariza. Paul Pierce, KG, and Ray Allen were supplemented by Big Baby, Rondo, Sam Cassell, and James Posey. Posey was instrumental, along with Gary Payton, Shaq, Udonis Haslem, in Miami's championship with D Wade. The Spurs big 3 had Bruce Bowen, Robert Horry, etc. The list goes on. For teams like Miami and New York, starting from scratch might be the best way to go. But, even with James and 2 other max contracts, don't expect a championship next season. You need to be able to pay other players and develop a team, in every sense of the word. The only reason the Boston Big 3 worked out is the leadership and tone set by KG and Doc Rivers along with being surrounded by guys that could hit open shots and play defense.

Of course, for some teams, like the Knicks and Cavs, it's not just about the championships. Without marquee free agents, basketball is no longer significant. For Cleveland, the black hole of sports, that makes them even less relevant than they were before. As a free agent, I would avoid those cities/teams because the goal is to sell tickets and merchandise, not win championships. Well, LeBron might actually prefer that.

Another note about building a team based on the 2010 free agent class - the most anticipated free agency in history. Outside of Dwayne Wade, how many champions are a part of this class? How much money is Amar'e Stoudemire really worth if he only choses to rebound during home playoff games? How bout LeBron? Did he really give up on the Cavs this year? Sure looked like it. Building teams is as much about leadership, coaching, and commitment as it is about talent and max contracts.

I think most GMs and owners know this. But then again, Gilbert Arenas has a $100 million contract and the Knicks payroll last year was filled with guys not living up to their contracts. It never ceases to amaze me how quickly lessons of bad contracts are easily forgotten.

For those who get sucked into the hype, enjoy paying Carlos Boozer $15 million a year to get you to the 2nd round of the playoffs. For those who know how to build teams, the free agent list is long and ripe for the picking. Look for teams with good foundations (Spurs, Thunder, Blazers, Magic, Suns) to get better and contend with the Lakers. Look for the Knicks, Bulls, and Heat to get better, make the playoffs, and fall short as usual.

Personally, I hope LeBron goes to the Knicks and nobody follows. Here's their starting lineup:

C - Eddy Curry
PF - Danilo Gallinari
SF - LeBron James
SG - Wilson Chandler/Andy Rautins
PG - Sergio Rodriguez

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Cowboys-Saints on Saturday Night.

The Cowboys needed it.

These two franchises are treated oppositely by the media. Every mistake is magnified for the Cowboys. The Saints, in all their ugly wins and now one loss, are still expected to be in the NFC championship game and potentially the Super Bowl.

This game came down to one big battle that was won by the Cowboys and lost by the Saints: the Defensive line of the Cowboys vs. the Offensive line of the Saints. Drew Brees had no time to set his feet and throw the ball. The Saints running game - especially after falling behind early - never got going.

The game was actually not very entertaining until Nick Folk missed a short field goal that made you think the Saints were destined to win and the Cowboys would just fade into December oblivion. But constant pressure from the Cowboys D-line and a Demarcus Ware induced fumble sealed the deal.

The outcome, though, won't change the outlook for either team. The Cowboys are still in a fight for the NFC East and need to continue to win to secure their playoff spot. Despite Tony Romo's improvements - this Dallas team seems more vulnerable to me than the others that sputtered in the past. The Saints, on the other hand, are still in position to clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. They have time to get healthy. They may not be perfect, but even on a bad day they don't look like a team that's bound for an early playoff exit.

Being snowed in by the first real snow storm in Maryland in ages, having football to watch on Saturday Night was great - between the end of College Football regular season and Bowl Season. But I can't imagine that NFL teams like playing on Saturdays or Thursdays. The schedule is grueling enough to have extra short weeks and long weeks. Players need time to recover and the product on the field suffers with these odd day games. For the fans, there is something off-putting about having football on nights that are reserved for The Office and for not sitting in front of the TV for football. But, the NFL Network will do what it does to survive. Thank you for being annoying.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Finals MVP: Vujacic or Powe?

Game 2 Stats for Leon Powe: 21 pts, 6-7 FG, 9-13 FT, 2 Reb
Game 3 Stats for Sasha Vujacic: 20 pts, 7-10 FG, 3-4 FT, 3 3PT, 4 Reb, 1 Ast, 1 Blk

The NBA Finals are a big stage for players to make a name for themselves. Leon Powe made a splash in Game 2 and Sasha Vujacic matched that effort in Game 3. Both are young players who have shown moments of strong play and their efforts in the finals came at the right time. But let's be clear about one thing: there is a reason both players come off the bench and play the minutes that they do. Both Doc Rivers and Phil Jackson know that the type of production from Powe and Vujacic that we saw doesn't come every night.

To further emphasize the point, Leon Powe followed up his big night with an 0-3, 2 Reb, 1 TO, 1 Pt night in about half the minutes he played in Game 2. The message here is that role players are a big part of what happens in a game but it is much easier for those players to have big games at home. Take a look at Rajon Rondo. Rondo has been very effective at the point for the Celtics at home. After combining for 23 Ast and 4 TO at home, he went for 4 Ast, 2 TO in Game 3 before spraining his ankle. Rondo's production has been vastly different on the road versus in the Garden. Yesterday, Kobe came out aggressive and made it easier for Vujacic to get open shots. In Game 2, Rondo and Pierce set up several easy dunks and layups for Powe.

The storyline for the Finals so far has been KG's good defense negating his poor shooting, and the play of Pierce and Allen vs Bryant. If the Lakers win Game 4, their role players will certainly contribute, but the tone is set by the best player. I think Boston wins the series because KG is neutralizing Gasol and Odom while Kobe cannot guard both Pierce and Allen. Which brings me to my next point, Pau Gasol is overrated as an "all star" in the league. He has limited post moves and he doesn't rebound or box out well. Tim Duncan put up HUGE numbers against the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, even in defeat. KG provides just as many problems on the offense and defense. With Gasol struggling and Odom in foul trouble and Vladimir Radmonovic doing absolutely nothing useful on the court, the Lakers are forced to play Turiaf and Walton for more and more minutes. The Lakers are not a championship quality team when those guys play extended minutes.

Let me also not forget to give props to Jeff Van Gundy for two things he said in the broadcasts of Games 2 and 3. First, when Mark Jackson compared Leon Powe to Dr. J, Van Gundy blasted him and apologized profusely to Dr. J for one of the most riduclous statements made on the air. And secondly, last night during Game 3, Van Gundy made the sharp observation that "Powe can only hurt you if he outworks you." The fact of the series has been that the big players have made the biggest impact. Kobe was held in check in Games 1 and 2 and outdueled Ray Allen in Game 3 while Pierce and Garnett struggled. Gasol and Odom have been ineffective throughout most of the series.

One disclaimer about my prediction: when Kobe is involved, he always has a chance to win. When I say that the Celtics are more talented, I mean that KG, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Sam Cassell, James Posey, Rajon Rondo are more talented - combined - than Kobe. But Kobe is still Kobe.

Friday, November 9, 2007

Season ending Tennis and Controversy

The season ending championships in Madrid on the WTA tour has already been a microcosm of what the 2007 season produced. On the men's side, David Nalbandian defeated Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal two times each and Novak Djokovic once in two tournaments, winning both. Off the court, more players have come forward revealing they had been offered money to throw matches and Nikolay Davydenko, the man who set off this controversy, was fined for not giving a good enough effort in a match earlier this fall.

First off, I want to say that watching the women's matches has been particularly entertaining because save Justine Henin, nobody in the top 10 has separated themselves from the pack. Still, the trends from the year have been noticeable in the round robin matches. Jelena Jankovic has played a lot of matches this year and no longer seems to have the legs to be playing at a consistently high level to justify her third seed. She lost all three round robin matches, retiring in her last. The big story was Serena Williams retiring from her match against Anna Chakvetadze after losing the first set 6-4. Chakvetadze continues her surge into the upper ranks and Williams continues to demonstrate a lack of preparation and conditioning. Williams struggled prior to her injury and if she really intends to focus on tennis, she'll have to start from the basics. She plays her best when she's able to cover the court and dominate opponents with her power. Her off-season should be centered around building strength and conditioning to get her back to that level of play.

Maria Sharapova took a lot of time off presumably to let her shoulder heal and it has paid dividends right away as she has worked her way into the semifinals of the tournament. Her game depends heavily on her ability to serve well. What I like about the season-ending championships is that all of the players are good enough that you can really pinpoint the weaknesses of each player. With only the top players qualifying, the early matches are just as tough as the later matches. Unless of course if you are Justine Henin. The most emphatic statement of the tournament so far has to be Henin's 6-0, 6-0 clinic she put on against Marion Bartoli. Not only did Henin punish Bartoli for her previous defeat against the French woman at Wimbledon, she did so in downright embarrassing fashion. Although Bartoli had less than 24 hours to prepare for her match after replacing Serena in the tournament, there was no mercy from Henin. She made it clear that the championship goes through her.

David Nalbandian's recent surge is difficult to gauge in my opinion. Clearly, the season is winding down and Nadal is physically worn. Nalbandian's victories over Nadal are not terribly surprising nor worrisome. The victory over Djokovic is impressive but Djokovic still has to sharpen his complete game before he solidifies his spot in the top 3. Nalbandian was there a few years ago and is looking to regain that form. The victories over Federer are much more impressive for obvious reasons. The first match against Roger, Nalbandian dropped the first set 1-6 and took the next two. The second match was a straight set victory. At this point in the season, Federer does not look as sharp or as motivated to play at his normally pristine level. It's good to see Federer being challenged and defeated by some of the other tour players but it took him two losses against Guillermo Canas before Roger figured out how to beat him. Hopefully Nalbandian has built good momentum toward the 2008 season but don't expect him to dethrone Roger.

The recent controversy in tennis surrounds a match for which all bets were nullified involving Nikolay Davydenko. Since then, Davydenko has been criticized twice during matches for not giving a proper effort and was fined once. Other players have come forward saying they have been offered money to throw matches. Interestingly, so far only those on the men's tour have come forward with these cases. Many players are encouraging clear and open talk about the issue but so far no names have been named. This whole issue is similar in my mind seems to be less scandalous than it appears. If players are coming out and saying they were offered money but rejected it, then the tennis on the court is not compromised. If in any instance a player accepts the payment and throws a match, we have a problem. Davydenko strongly denies all claims that he is involved in match fixing so until there is proof otherwise, there is nothing to worry about. The rules must be clear (to avoid a Patriot-like "misinterpretation of the rules" and the punishment must be harsh for violators. Clearly, the tour will be more attentive to the possibility of match fixing now, but there is no drastic measure necessary.

Looking ahead to 2008 there are a few stories to keep an eye on. Lindsay Davenport looked exceptionally sharp during her few months on the tour after giving birth. She is going to be a major factor in the Australian Open. Serena Williams' latest injury will likely keep her from repeating at the Aussie Open but like I said, if Serena commits to getting in shape, she will always be a threat to win the majors. Martina Hingis retired from the tour for a second time, this time under cocaine usage allegations. I tend to agree with Hingis that someone on cocaine probably wouldn't be able to compete at the level she does. Spoiled brat as she was, she brought a lot of skill and talent to the tour so her presence will be missed. Hingis was never able to rediscover her early success but found a way to be competitive in a game that has significantly changed since she first broke out onto the tour. Hingis is another name on the list of stars such as Jennifer Capriati and Monica Seles that were forced out of competition before they could be given a proper farewell. There are a few other questions I have: What ever happened to Anastatia Myskina? Where is Amelie Mauresmo? Have people realized that James Blake and Andy Roddick have both peaked? Is 2008 the year that Sam Querrey, John Isner, and co make a large splash for American tennis?

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Super Bad Idea

No, I'm not referring to going to a liquor store as a severely underage teenager named McLovin. The Super Bad idea is planning to have a Super Bowl in London. In today's news, Roger Goodell cited a "great deal of interest in holding a a Super Bowl in London." So far the commissioner has laid down some unpredictable punishment which has led me to be suspicious of his doing what is best for the NFL. Now he is considering taking the single biggest sporting event in the world to London.

American football will always be second to soccer in Europe. Less than three months ago, the NFL reported that it was discontinuing NFL Europe. There might be a market for one game in London, but there is no way the NFL will gain the same sort of popularity in Europe as it has here in the US. But beyond the basic idea of trying to develop an international interest in the NFL, this idea is just ridiculous.

This report came on the heels of rumors that the NBA is looking into eventually developing expansion franchises in Europe. Basketball, however, has a much greater international appeal than football and there are already good teams in Europe and Latin America. The NBA draft has been littered with high first round draft picks over the past decade and the San Antonio Spurs are the champions and spokesmen for an internationally flavored NBA with Manu Ginobli (Argentina), Tony Parker (France), and Tim Duncan (US Virgin Islands counts...they can't vote) as the faces of the franchise. The NFL has neither the international base of interest nor the star power to make the league more popular across Europe.

Still, the NFL seems to be dedicated to developing its international fan base. Whether the long-term plans involve franchises in other countries remains to be determined. However, putting a regular season game in Europe or Mexico is very different than allowing London to host the Super Bowl. In all professional sports in America, the All Star Games and Playoff games generate enormous amounts of revenue for the host cities. Like the Olympics, the city that is chosen to host the All Star game or Super Bowl benefits from an economic boost relating to that event. To allow London to take that away from an American city would be devastating.

From a fan's perspective, traveling to London to see the Super Bowl would be much more difficult than traveling within the US. The weak US Dollar (yes I went there!) would make it more expensive for regular fans of the two teams to make it to the event. For most teams, getting to the Super Bowl is not a yearly occurrence. Since the 1997 Super Bowl between the Patriots and Packers, only three teams have made it to the Big Game more than once, the Patriots, Broncos, and Rams. So in the event that a new team makes it, which is certainly possible in the NFC and would not be entirely surprising in the AFC, those fans would be robbed of a chance to support their team properly.

I realize that in order to expand, the NFL and its fans will have to make certain sacrifices. There can be no NFL Europe if the league is not willing to take its biggest game to that continent. However, if the league is that committed to developing the international fan base it should look to Mexico, Canada, and parts of Latin America first. It seems contradictory to cut NFL Europe but plan to have a Super Bowl in London. If the NFL can successfully appeal to international markets closer to home, Europe should be revisited. Having a regular season game in London is a good way of maintaining interest. Furthermore, changing the location of the Pro Bowl from Honolulu to London or elsewhere in Europe could also help generate interest while protecting the main fan base from having to watch the Super Bowl in London.

On a logistical note, it might be difficult to schedule the Super Bowl for the same kickoff time as usual. The time difference with London could cause a loss of interest or ratings in the US. At the end of the day, I am opposed to the idea, through and through. I am a big fan of the NFL and I believe that it is the biggest sport in America. Taking the Super Bowl to London would be ill advised.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Early Season Struggles

Parity in the NFL has always led to surprising starts, good or bad, for teams around the league. Usually it is a combination of injury, free agency, and entitlement that will change a team's fortunes from one season to the next. The prime example of that team this year is the New Orleans Saints. The Rams were not supposed to be great, but their offense was supposed to be much more potent than it has been so far. The Bears and Chargers are also victims of the three contributing factors that have caused early season problems.

The Saints are maybe the most disappointing because of the continued hype surrounding Reggie Bush and the media loving the post-Katrina renaissance of the Saints. But the Saints problems are hardly surprising. This is a team that always had to outscore it's opponent to win. The early season struggles are a continuation of what happened to the Saints against the Bears in last year's NFC Championship. Their offense struggled and their defense cannot stop anyone.

One factor that is highly overlooked with the Saints is the fact that they have lost their top two receivers and proven stars over the past two years. Donte Stallworth played last season in Philadelphia and Joe Horn left to join Atlanta this year. The Saints found a gem in Marques Colston but the only other legitimate threat added to the offense was the oft-injured Eric Johnson. While Johnson figures to be a solid target while healthy, there are no guarantees he will finish the season. The addition of David Patten was a waste of resources given Patten's inability to produce since leaving the Patriots.

Coupled with their anemic defense, the Saints now have a less fearsome offense. The loss of Joe Horn will be even more apparent with the loss of Deuce McAllister for the remainder of the season. Without experience at receiver or running back, the Saints will continue to struggle all season. That being said, last season was no fluke. Drew Brees was a good investment and Reggie Bush has playmaking capability. But the Saints will need to use this year to mature and need to add some defensive help before they make another Super Bowl run.

Their opponents in the NFC Championship game are similarly struggling on offense but luckily have a top notch defense to lean on. But injuries are taking their toll on the Bears with Tommie Harris and Lance Briggs ailing. The Bears' offensive woes have been placed almost entirely on Rex Grossman, resulting in his benching. But in reality, they have missed the presence of Thomas Jones. Cedric Benson has shown flashes of being capable but has also showed why he was not able to claim sole possession of the starting job last year. Also, Bernard Berrian, Mushin Muhammad, and Desmond Clark have dropped passes and stopped running on routes which have contributed to Grossman's poor numbers. Last week against the Cowboys, one of Grossman's interceptions was caused by Muhammad stopping short during his route.

So the ineffective running game has put more pressure on Grossman to make plays. No question, Grossman has been utterly unable to produce when necessary. This in turn has put more pressure on the defense to create turnovers and make plays. They have done that to a limit, holding LaDainian Tomlinson to under 50 yards rushing and Larry Johnson to similarly low numbers. But the Cowboys exploited Adam Archuletta and Marion Barber III found gaping holes and broke tackles in the running game. Although it was probably necessary to let him go, the Bears seem to miss the presence of Tank Johnson on the line of scrimmage. Last season the offense did enough to make the defense look better. This season, opposing teams are getting more opportunities on offense and the defense can only hold for so long because inevitably teams will score. One last word about the Bears, Devin Hester has not really fit into the regular offense as hoped. Although he has one return for a touchdown already, he also fumbled three times in the loss to the Cowboys, eliminating him as a threat in the game.

The Chargers seem to be more bothered by the coaching change and a sense of deserving a place in the NFL elite. The Chargers have found out quickly that they will not be given free yards after playing three tough defenses in Chicago, New England, and Green Bay. Look for them to bounce back and win their division. The Rams are more of an injury story. Losing Orlando Pace and Steven Jackson spells trouble for a bad team in a mediocre division. The Giants, Eagles, and Bengals all could be better than they are but are consistently inconsistent teams so their records are not surprising. Both the Giants and Eagles responded to two early losses with impressive wins against undefeated opponents. The Bengals should have won last week but reverted to the Bungles by fumbling away their opportunity to beat the Seahawks. Remember when they messed up the extra point against Denver last season? That one play, in a preview of what would happen to Tony Romo, effectively ended their chance at a Wild Card spot.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Never Underestimate Mothers

The finals of the US Open were supposed to be the crowning moment of a summer of great tennis. But, the real excitement came one week after the everyone had left Flushing. Lindsay Davenport, who gave birth to her first child in June, defeated Daniela Hantuchova in Bali in a three set match clinching her first title in her first singles tournament after a one year hiatus from the tour.

What was surprising about Davenport's victory is that she was healthy. After struggling with injuries and going through a pregnancy, Lindsay Davenport finally showed up to a tournament fresh and eager to play. Before retiring from the tour, Davenport seemed to be at the top of her game, but her body simply would not let her perform to her abilities. Davenport picked up right where she left off, but this time with a healthy body. She was even in decent shape, beating the top two seeds in three set matches.

Davenport dropped the second set of her match against Jelena Jankovic but put together an impressive third set, winning 6-2. Remember that Jankovic was on the verge of beating Venus Williams to claim a spot in the US Open Semifinals. But similar to that match, Jankovic was not able to come up with the shots in the final set. Against Daniela Hantuchova in the finals, Lindsay Davenport again dropped the second set and again won the third convincingly, 6-2. Hantuchova had finally put together a good tournament after falling in the first round of the Pilot Pen and US Open. But her chronic inconsistency showed again in the loss to Davenport.

Davenport entered the tournament with the goal of proving, as a mother, she could still play at the highest level. She said more than that in her path to victory and with a few months of training, could be a real threat at the Australian Open. At 31 years old, Davenport is not too old to play but certainly aging. With a baby to look after, it's not likely she plays a larger number of tournaments. But she will come to Australia prepared to make a run. If Justine Henin does not play or if there are one or two upsets, I think Davenport has a better chance to win than any other up and coming player. By defeating Jankovic and Hantuchova, Davenport has proved she can still win big matches. But the Williams sisters, Henin, and a healthy Sharapova will be tougher opponents, especially in the slams.

Speaking of the slams, I cannot end without some comment on the US Open. Though the finals ended up being anti-climactic endings to an otherwise amazing tournament, I do have some final thoughts. On the women's side, I hate to say it, but I TOLD YOU SO! Henin did not drop a set the whole tournament and beat both Williams sisters on the way to her 7th slam title. If she can stay injury free for a few more years, she will separate herself from the active players in grand slam titles and establish herself as the undisputed dominant player of this generation. I already know it, but the rest of the world might not be convinced.

As far as Roger Federer's win is concerned, it was hardly surprising, like Henin's. Federer looked more human at the US Open, dropping opening sets to Feliciano Lopez and John Isner. But what separates Federer from the field was his ability to win the big points. In the final, Federer had to save seven set points in the first and second set. I am not sure if I am more impressed by the fact that Federer did indeed save those points and win the ensuing tie breaks or disappointed by the fact that Novak Djokovic was unable to capitalize on those points. Djokovic is a great but still unproven player who has been on the verge of becoming the first non-Federer/Nadal winner since Andy Roddick won the Open way back when. I guess Djokovic is just not ready to assume the role as the third wheel in the Nadal/Federer rivalry. Still, if Djokovic wins a slam next year and if Nadal can defeat Federer at Wimbledon, 2008 might be the year that the Federer dominance comes to an end. Might.