Monday, July 30, 2007

KG to the Celtics!

Don't look now, but here comes the East. The Celtics and Timberwolves are on the verge of a trade that could help balance the lopsided NBA.

First Ray Allen was plucked from Seattle and now Kevin Garnett appears to be on the move for a lot of potential in Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, and Sebastian Telfair plus an expiring contract (Theo Ratliff). There is no question that the West still has better teams than the East, but the power may be shifting a bit. Let's look at the star power that has changed sides in the past couple seasons.

East to West:
1. Allen Iverson (to Nuggets)
2. Ron Artest (to Kings)
3. Grant Hill (to Suns)
4. Steve Francis (to Rockets)

West to East:
1. Ray Allen (to Celtics)
2. Kevin Garnett (to Celtics)
3. Jason Richardson (to Bobcats)
4. Zach Randolph (to Knicks)
5. Rashard Lewis (to Magic)

The East to West movement is mainly aging stars or those with baggage, or both. And while Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett are also getting older, Zach Randolph and Jason Richardson are at or reaching prime age of play. Still, the Western Conference received a fortuitous bounce on lottery day which resulted in Portland and Seattle drafting Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. In the same way, the East was fortunate to land Dwyane Wade and LeBron James in the same draft year. The West certainly has more proven players and teams, not to mention 8 of the last 9 MVPs since Jordan's final MVP season and the past 6 consecutive MVPs.

The Celtics instantly become contenders in the East with the addition of Kevin Garnett. Miami's addition of Smush Parker and potentially others puts them back into contention. Orlando improved by adding Lewis and the Bulls improved through the draft. The Pistons will be solid and the Knicks will be improved yet again. New Jersey welcomes back Vince Carter as well as a healthy Nenad Krstic. Things are looking up in the East. The Cavs have yet to make big moves and the Wizards look for Arenas to really break out this season yet both teams will contend if healthy.

The talent in the west in undeniable with Steve Nash and Tim Duncan as the stalwarts. But I think the Mavs were exposed very badly last year and contrary to Mark Cuban's philosophy, they will need to rebuild in order to win. I would not put my faith in Dirk carrying Dallas to a championship because of how he was unable to respond to the Golden State defense. When Dwyane Wade was being blanketed by the Mavs, he rose above their defense to carry Miami to its title. Dirk instead faded into the offseason. Also, the Suns only have a couple more years of Steve Nash at that pace to be productive and Golden State cannot win on simply adrenaline as it reloads around Baron Davis. The Jazz will need an offensive boost to become challenge the Spurs and the Nuggets will need to gel better. The Lakers and Hornets need to stay healthy and need help around their stars, Kobe and Chris Paul. If their talent develops, Portland seems to have the brightest future, but that is still at least two years in the making.

So looking ahead to this season in the NBA, the Western Conference may well win the MVP or home court in the finals but don't be surprised if a team like the Heat or Bulls is able to bring a championship back east.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Stern Says All the Right Things

Facing a potentially catastrophic scandal, NBA Commissioner David Stern did and said all the right things. And what he said is that:

a) The NBA did all it could to prevent something like this from happening. Through the training, screens, and checks the NBA has a thorough system to educate referees on rules and monitor their behavior.

b) This was isolated to one referee who had developed a bad gambling habit and became trapped. He knowingly disobeyed the rules and before resigning on July 9th, he was planning to pursue a plea agreement in the impending case.

c) The NBA will review its procedure and rules to ensure the integrity of the game.

There is more to be interpreted from David Stern's message. First of all, he described a lot of the league's policies and procedures regarding officials. The referees are subjected to an observer system to monitor the calls that they make or don't make. Like the players, they are subjected to training camp, preseason, and regular season training sessions. Furthermore, there are different levels of referees that indicate what level of the playoffs they are allowed to ref. This is based on experience and performance. All things considered, Tim Donaghy was a mid-level NBA ref with a moderate amount of experience.

What I understood from David Stern illuminating the public on the NBA's procedures is that handing out pamphlets with gambling rules may not be the most efficient way of making rules clear. Stern insisted that the NBA's gambling policy for referees is clear, but how many of us have started a job, or opened a bank account, or signed up for something online and haven't read all of the conditions pertaining to that contract. The NBA is not completely innocent in this situation. Also, as part of the collective bargaining agreement, referees are not allowed to gamble in any form, except horse racing during the summer after the season is over. They must obtain a permit from the NBA to do this. This is a stupid rule. Either they are allowed to gamble or they are not allowed to. Horse racing is no different than slots or blackjack. If the referees' union wanted to give them some leeway, a more reasonable point to agree upon would be to disallow gambling on sports.

Tim Donaghy worked 139 regular season games and 8 playoff games over the past two seasons. The allegations of what games he placed bets on are still unclear. He is accused of betting on some games that he worked and possibly other games. The worry around the sports world is that the results of some games could have been changed due to Donaghy's bias. However, I don't believe he really influenced the outcome of games unfairly. If the NBA system is as thorough as David Stern claims, then presumably any irregular behavior would have been noticed and Donaghy would have been suspended in a similar fashion to Joey Crawford last season. Tim Donaghy wasn't the reason the Spurs beat the Suns. Tim Duncan had a much bigger role in that outcome. Believe that because it's true.

Still this will force the NBA to answer to a lot of critics and luckily they have David Stern to do so. Let the young stars in the league speak for the quality of basketball. In the mean time, this is a nice break to the boredom of summer sports.

Friday, July 20, 2007

Bonds...Vick...NBA Refs?

It was a bad week for sports. Bonds is two homers from the record, Michael Vick will be indicted, and the NBA is facing a Pete Rose-like scandal.

Here's my take. Barry Bonds is a good baseball player. He might be a jerk but he knows how to hit. The truth about baseball is that players have been using performance enhancing substances since the first day. The greats as we remember them now were not all model citizens. So although Bonds has given people plenty of reason to hate him, he has been a consistently good hitter his whole career. I'd much rather Bonds be the hero instead of Mark McGwire. I guess I'll just be happy when he breaks the record and people stop caring about baseball again.

On Michael Vick: he's stupid. He's Marcus Vick's brother. He's the most talented athlete in the NFL. He likes to watch and bet on dog fights. He finally has a receiver to throw to but might never get the chance to do anything substantial in the NFL. His loss, Nike's loss, the NFL's loss but look for a big suspension based on what Roger Goodell's reaction has been to this summer's plethora of misbehaving players.

On the NBA referee scandal: so many speculations can be made about this case. It is still too early to know whether games were actually tainted by betting and throwing games. But this is much worse than a player betting on games. This has potential to affect the credibility of the league just a year after it decided to give referees more respect and power with cracking down player reactions to calls made. This could make Rasheed Wallace turn in his sleep thinking about all of those technical fouls he was given. And although Joey Crawford wasn't implicated, it certainly reminds us of Tim Duncan's ejection last year and Crawford's subsequent suspension. Basically the NBA has to hope that this was not part of a bigger problem and is an isolated incident involving a human being that made some mistakes.

On a brighter side in the NBA, look for Steve Francis to have a renaissance in Houston. He'll be healthy and back in a city where he made is mark and is comfortable. At 30, he has plenty of good basketball left and Houston has quietly made key moves in the offseason to help them get to the next level. Less pressure on TMac and Yao means they will be even more effective.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Almost Perfect

I can't decide whether or not I was surprised by Federer winning his fifth Wimbledon. The question a lot of people are asking is: Could Federer have beat Nadal had he not injured his knee? The answer is that the injury did not matter. Nadal still had four break points in the fifth set and failed to convert.

What I like about the Caveman's stance on this final is that he recognized his own weakness: his serve. He has beaten Federer on clay and almost on grass but I think he still knows that his game needs improvement. If Nadal can learn to flatten out his serve from time to time, he could have a lot more success on grass. And remember, the kid is still only 21 years old. As long as he stays healthy, he will eventually get his first Slam besides the French.

About the match itself, you just had to watch. If you missed it, too bad for your life. Entertainment from start to finish. By the way, would you take Pete Sampras at his prime or Roger Federer at his prime at Wimbledon? I'd still take Pete no question.

Thursday, July 5, 2007

Nadal = Caveman??

I'm back from a month in India and I managed to catch some of Wimbledon out there. It has been played out quite expectedly despite all the rain. I was watching Nadal's interview this morning and made a startling discovery. Geico is missing a caveman!! I found him, he's in London, playing at Wimbledon. Look:










I have to credit my brother for the idea of showing these guys side by side. Looks like Nadal is having a meltdown of his own at Wimbledon. Luckily for him he has been able to put together back to back five set wins.

In other news, Pete Sampras thinks he would still be able to get to the net against players today at Wimbledon. He's right. With his serve on point, he could do it. Roddick seems to think he's invincible with his serve as well. Given that if Roddick is going to win, he's going to do it either at Wimbledon or the US Open, but what makes Andy so cocky? Making it this far is good for Andy and he's building confidence but blah blah blah blah, Federer wins again. That is, unless blast from the past Juan Carlos Ferrero has an out of body experience. We might still see a Monday or Tuesday final to put off the boredom of July and August in the sports world.